Iran Diplomacy Watch
Providing Independent Analysis of Iran's Foreign Policy Developments
Monday, April 11, 2022
Friday, March 4, 2022
Wednesday, January 12, 2022
Saving the Iran Nuclear Deal Requires Balancing it
It has become increasingly evident that restoring the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the Iran nuclear deal, is extremely challenging without ensuring its durability. Several years after Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA and began pursuing a maximum pressure campaign against Iran, and Tehran retaliated by accelerating and expanding its nuclear program, policymakers in Washington and Tehran must ensure that the deal, once revived, remains in force for all its parties over its entire duration. While some politicians call for intensifying economic pressure and military threats against Iran to bring it into conformity with U.S. objectives, these tools have proven to be counterproductive and dangerously escalating. Rather, the best solution lies in strengthening the JCPOA in a manner that would minimize the possibility of defection by the parties.
It is no secret that the JCPOA’s enforcement mechanisms and overall costs and benefits are distorted, but what is less recognized is that the JCPOA’s built-in imbalance is undermining U.S. interests and nuclear nonproliferation goals. By far the most notable manifestation of this imbalance is the agreement’s failure to establish mutual legal and political deterrence between Iran and the United States with respect to violating the agreement or quitting it altogether. Instead, the JCPOA constructed one-sided deterrence against Iran by threatening the snapback of multilateral and unilateral sanctions against it and automatically triggering its referral to the UN Security Council, should it violate the agreement or withdraw from it. Continue reading on The National Interest or Foreign Policy In Focus
Monday, October 18, 2021
Friday, August 20, 2021
What Awaits Afghanistan after the Taliban Takeover?
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Today, public sentiments
in Kabul and other Afghan cities toward the Taliban takeover, as reflected in
citizens’ reporting, is a mix of panic, shock, helplessness, anger,
uncertainty, and relief. The memories of the Taliban’s brutal rule in the
1990sand the stories of its conduct in recent years have fed into widespread
fears and anxieties among many Afghan citizens. Women, ethnic and religious
minorities, intellectuals, and the political and security cadre of the collapsed
Afghan government have the most to lose from Taliban rule as the group is
expected to impose their own strict reading of the Islamic Sharia law on
society and to punish the collaborators of the ancien regime. The flood of many
thousands of Afghan people to the Kabul airport in recent days and their
frantic attempts to flee their country by any means reflect this dominant mood
among these segments of Afghan society.
Afghans’ weariness and
frustration over four decades of foreign occupation and civil wars, daily
scenes of violence and bloodshed, and the incompetence and corruption of their
government have ironically led some of them to see the Taliban as their
saviors. Thus, some Afghans welcomed the Taliban’s entry into Kabul and other
major cities. These Afghans see the Taliban’s victory and dominance as
heralding the end of insecurity, instability, and corruption. But for other
Afghans, the future is simply fraught with uncertainties as they wonder how the
Taliban may rule and how other actors will react to that. Continue reading on National Interest
Friday, July 9, 2021
Tuesday, April 20, 2021
Wednesday, March 24, 2021
Interview: Return to the Iran Nuclear Deal Before Talks on Other Issues
Saturday, March 6, 2021
Interview: Effective Removal of US Sanctions and Iran's Full Compliance with JCPOA
بازار؛ گروه بین الملل: یکی از شگردهای ترامپ تغییر برچسب تحریمهایی بود که ذیل عنوان هسته ای مطرح شده بود. اگرچه چیزی به عنوان «تحریم هسته ای» در قوانین آمریکا به رسمیت شناحته نشده ولی در برجام این موضوع رسمیت یافته بود.
حال با بازگشت آمریکا به برجام ایران خواسته است که تمام تحریمهای ترامپ تحت هر عنوان و برچسب باید برچیده شود.
در گفتگوی خبرنگار بازار با دکتر «ابوالقاسم بینات» پژوهشگر فوق دکترای دانشگاه هاروارد آمریکا به بررسی این موضوع که بقای برجام در دوره بایدن به فرض احیای آن پرداخته شده که در ادامه آمده است.
دکتر «ابوالقاسم بینات» پژوهشگر فوق دکترای مرکز بلفر مدرسه کندی دانشگاه هاروارد آمریکا است. او دکترای خود را از دانشگاه سیراکیوس آمریکا اخذ کرده است. حوره مطالعاتی وی موضوع هسته ای ایران با تمرکز بر فرایندهای تصمیم گیری در برنامه هسته ای ایران است. وی همچنین در خصوص سیاست خارجی ایران، روابط بین المللی خاورمیانه، نقش هویت دولت در سیاست خارجی و رژیم تجاری خارجی ایران مطالعه و تحقیق دارد.
مساله منطقه هم در همین چارچوب قابل ارزیابی است. سیاست و حضور منطقه ای ایران برای آمریکا مهم است. چون ایران اساسا یک قدرت منطقه ای است و فقط می تواند در منطقه خود منافع آمریکا و متحدان منطقه ای آن را به طور جدی به چالش بکشد. تا زمانی که این تضاد منافع و تقابل وجود دارد، آمریکا درپی مهار قدرت ایران خواهد بود. از این رو حفظ توافق هسته ای با چالش دائمی روبه رو خواهد بود چون آمریکا دائما به دنبال بازگرداندن اهرمهای چانه زنی از دست رفته خود در برجام خواهد بود تا بتواند ایران را با آنها ترغیب یا مجبور به تغییر سیاستهای منطقه ایش کند.
Monday, March 1, 2021
How to Make the Iran Nuclear Deal Durable
The fate of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or what is commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, is hanging by a thread. As diplomats are jockeying to find a way to revive the nuclear agreement, the bigger question hanging on policymakers’ heads is how to prevent a revived JCPOA or any other similar deal with Iran from suffering the same fate under President Joe Biden or his successors, and ensure its durability. Reaching a grand bargain with Tehran and involving the U.S. Congress in the adoption of the nuclear deal appear as two potential solutions, but they are not practical and realistic. Rather, what can save the Iran nuclear deal, in the long run, is resetting the Iran-U.S. relationship and establishing a modus vivendi between the two countries.
The record of the JCPOA’s enforcement over the past five years demonstrates that the main threat to any nuclear agreement with Tehran emanates in large part from Washington’s desire to preserve most of its economic leverage over Iran and minimize the actual benefits of sanctions removal for the country. This is basically because the core dispute between the United States and Iran is about the region, not just the nuclear issue. Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA in May 2018 and the reimposition of unprecedented U.S. sanctions against Iran clearly bear out this assessment, as they were meant to regain and expand U.S. bargaining power against Iran in the hope of securing a better nuclear deal and addressing the regional issues. Continue reading.